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همگرایی دلار و زعفران،کاهش مجدد
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همگرایی دلار و زعفران،کاهش مجدد

مقدمه

پس از ورود زعفران به عرصه معاملات آتی بورس کالا،شاهد همگرایی قیمت زعفران به عنوان کالای صادراتی ارز آور و دلار هستیم.در این گزارش سعی شده تا برپایه اصل همگرایی قیمتها روند روزهای آتی دلار و طلا را بررسی کرد.همچنان که در نمودار زیر مشاهده میکنید نمودار نگین زعفران تحویل بهمن ماه ، قطعا تا تلاقی خط روند و خط میانه چنگال کاهش خواهد یافت.در صورت گذشت قیمت از این نقطه تلاقی امکان رسیدن قیمت به خط روندو خط پایین چنگال وجود دارد.

نمودار زعفران تحویل بهمن 97

در نمودار زیر گراف قرمز رنگ مربوط به زعفران و گراف آبی رنگ مربوط به قیمت دلار است.احتمال کاهش هر دو منغییر در روزهای پایانی سال جاری وجود دارد.

نمودار برابر شده دلار و زعفران

بنابراین امکان افزایش قیمت نمادهای آتی زعفران بهمن و اسفند تا پایان سال جاری بسیار کم بوده و باتوجه به واگرایی قیمتهای این دو متغییر هرگونه افزایش قیمت زعفران منوط به افزایش قیمت دلار در سال آینده است.

 

 

 

 

 

 


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ارسال یک نظر
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