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Deprecated: Function create_function() is deprecated in /home/sjbourse/domains/sjbourse.ir/public_html/ati/wp-includes/pomo/translations.php on line 208 تعثیرات آربیتراژ در کشف قیمت(اصلاح تکنیکالی) Deprecated: Function get_magic_quotes_gpc() is deprecated in /home/sjbourse/domains/sjbourse.ir/public_html/ati/wp-includes/formatting.php on line 4371
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یکی از مهمترین اثرات بروز حالت HOT MONEY در بازار سرمایه و بازار پول،عقیم سازی تکنیک آربیتراز است.عدم وقوع آربتراز و عدم علاقه معامله گران به این سبک از معامله به دلیل ایجاد تورم و شتاب افزایش در قیمت است که عملا این تکنیک با ضرر روبروع میگردد .بنابراین عدم وقوع آربیتراژ در بازارها باعث عدم کشف صحیح قیمت میگردد.در این تحلیل سعی شده است که اثرات وقوع حالت آربیتراژ (فروش نماد آتی زعفران بهمن و خرید نماد آتی زعفران دی) در روند قیمتها از منظر تکنیکالی بحث گردد.
همچنان قیمت گواهی سپرده زعفران بهمن ماه به عنوان دارایی زیر مجموعه قراردادهای آتی زعفران ،دلیل تحلیل این نماد از گواهی است.همچنان که در چارت زیر مشاهده میکنید ،تکنیک موج شماری الیوت کف قیمت را در 11900 تومان پیش بینی میکند.
نمودار 15 دقیقه گواهی سپرده بهمن ماه
با همین تکنیک میتوان نمودار یک ساعته این متغییر را با همین هدف بررسی کرد.
نمدار یک ساعته گواهی سپرده زعفران بهمن ماه
اما میتوان این نماد از گواهی را باسایر تکنیکها نیز بررسی نمود.همانطور که در نمودار زیر ملاحظه میکنن،با تکنیک اکسپانسیون و چنگال اندرو ادامه اصلاح قیمت تا تراز 11900 را پیش بینی نمود.
نمودار یک ساعته گواهی سپرده بهمن ماه
لذا با توجه به مفروضات و پیش بینی های فوق بنظر میرسد سرسید آتی بهمن با کاهش روبرو گردد.در نمودار زیر امکان کاهش تا تراز 61.8 کانال فیبوناچی(13400) و سپس تراز 50 درصد کانال آن(13000) وجود دارد.
نمودار یک ساعته زعفران آتی بهمن ماه 1397
در نمودار زیر با تکنیک الیوت فعلا کف موج 3 قیمت 13000 تومان مشخص گردیده است.
نمودار یک ساعته اتی بهمن 1397
در نتیجه و با توجه به تکنیکهای فوق بنظر میرسد قیمت این کالا در معاملات آتی بورس و گواهی سپرده موقتا در روند اصلاحی و نزولی از یک روند صعودی بلند مدت است .اما فعلا در انتظار کاهش قیمت تا سطوح پیش بینی شده فوق میمانیم و پیش بینی ادامه روند صعودی را منوط به کشف الگوهای جدیدی مانند واگرایی ها مینماییم.
باسپاس
شرکت کارگزاری ستاره جنوب
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ارسال یک نظر Deprecated: Function get_magic_quotes_gpc() is deprecated in /home/sjbourse/domains/sjbourse.ir/public_html/ati/wp-includes/formatting.php on line 4371 لغو پاسخ
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